BYES' THEOREM
BYES' THEOREM It is a conditional law of probability. Two levels of probability are considered here. The statistics is calculated using Byes' theorem. A factory has two machines. Past records show that machine ‘A’ produces 35% of items of the output and m/c ‘B’ produces remaining. Further 6% of items produced by m/c A were defectives and 3% defectives from m/c B. If a defective item is drawn at random, what is the probability that the defective item was produced by m/c A and m/c B? Four plants producer an item , the first plant producer 5000 of units , second 3000 , third 8000 , and fourth 4000 of units. The event Ai: a unit is produced in plant i. i = 1,2,3,4 and event B:a unit is defective. From the records of the proportions of defectives produced at each plant the following conditional probabilities are set : P(B/A 1 )=0.05 , P(B/A ...